Thursday, March 20, 2014

Minimum Wage in the Hand...

The minimum wage will have a stimulative effect on the economy. It just make sense. Low-income and poor workers do mainly one thing with their income - they spend it! 
America's economy is consumptive. It churns by people buying things. It stands to reason that the more money people have the more they will be able to buy. When rich people get more money, they save and invest. The resistance to a minimum wage of $10.10 is based upon the erroneous idea that they will do with their money what rich people do with theirs. It is just the opposite.
If I can be so bold, I disagree with Warren Buffett. Buffett believes that an increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit would be better for the economy than an increase in the income of the poor. The EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit) comes once a year, at tax time. The child at home needs food, clothes and shoes, all year long. An increase in the minimum wage is a more effective than a option than $1500 - $2000 once a year.
Check out this article in Bloomberg News...
As the debate rages on whether an increase in the U.S. minimum wage will boost or hinder hiring, one aspect is more unambiguous. It would almost surely lift consumer spending.
While the effect will probably be positive, the magnitude of the improvement remains up in the air. A pay hike of $1.75 an hour, smaller than currently proposed, would augment purchases by at least $48 billion in the first year, according to a 2013 paper by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago economists. Analysis by private researchers points to a smaller gain.
A raise would help lower-income earners contend with a decrease in government assistance such as the food-stamp program and the increase in the payroll tax that have hurt household purchases, which account for almost 70 percent of the economy. The Congressional Budget Office estimates there are about 16.5 million Americans who make less than $10.10 an hour, the new minimum being proposed by the Obama administration.
“Pretty much every penny of the extra wages these minimum-wage workers get they’ll be spending,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “I doubt they have any scope for saving. They’re barely getting by.”
Richard Wilson, 27, says a higher minimum means he would have to make fewer tough choices when deciding how to best spend the $9.25 that he now makes per hour as a meat department worker at a Wal-Mart Stores Inc. outlet in Chicago.
“I have to choose sometimes between a monthly bus pass, a weekly bus pass, lunch for the day,” said Wilson.


Wal-Mart, the largest private employer in the U.S., is weighing the impact of additional payroll costs against possibly attracting more consumer dollars to its stores, David Tovar, a company spokesman, said last week. Increasing the minimum wage means that some of the 140 million people who shop at the chain weekly could “now have additional income,” Tovar said.
A $1 increase in minimum pay leads to $250 in extra income per quarter for households with adult minimum-wage earners, spurring $700 in quarterly spending in the year following the escalation, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago researchers found in 2011. That’s because households can make down-payments and borrow more as incomes climb, which enables them to boost spending, according to their analysis using data from the 1980s to 2008. The period included six increases in the federal minimum.

Fed Study

“We actually have a very large consumption effect,” said Sumit Agarwal, one of the authors of the study who is now at the National University of Singapore. A 2013 update by the Chicago Fed showed that a hike to $9 from the current $7.25 would boost gross domestic product by 0.3 percentage point, or $48 billion, in the first year, though it would have little effect in the long run.
“If you go to $10.10, versus $9, even that one dollar increase will definitely boost up the economy, and GDP, as you have purchases and consumption,” said Agarwal, an economics professor. As for the increase, “if you say it’s going to be $2, it’s not going to be linear, which means it’s not going to double the effect.”
As workers go higher on a pay scale, the more they’ll spend on durable goods, primarily cars, Agarwal said. Past increases also boosted credit-card spending by $300 to $400 over the first couple of years, he said. “They will go out and maybe eat better food or buy better groceries.”

Buying Power

That will help make up for a small portion of the loss in buying power elsewhere. A new farm law cuts $8.6 billion from food stamps over the next decade. About 850,000 households will see their food support cut by about $90 a month. Also, in 2013 the payroll tax used to fund programs such as Social Security reverted to 6.2 percent, where it had been prior to the recession, from 4.2 percent.
While other analysts agree the impact of minimum-wage increase will be positive, they say the boost will be smaller than projected by the Chicago Fed researchers.
A hike to $10.10 could add $22.1 billion to GDP, almost entirely from gains in consumer spending, based on estimates from the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based research group partly funded by labor unions. U.S. workers would gain $35 billion in wages over the phase-in period through 2016, by EPI’s estimate.
The study didn’t attempt to take into account how much more borrowing would be stimulated by the increase, said report author David Cooper, which may be one reason why its estimate is lower than the Chicago Fed’s projection.
Read the rest of the article here...

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